Firing up the faithful

The country’s two dominant political forces – the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) – are preparing to bring their campaigns to a thunderous climax this weekend with duelling mass rallies, each aiming to flood the streets with supporters and prove they have the momentum heading into Wednesday’s hotly anticipated general election.

The PNP will take its orange wave to Sam Sharpe Square in Montego Bay, St James, while the ruling JLP is betting big on Spanish Town, St Catherine – the Old Capital and the boyhood hometown of Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness.

Political analyst Dr Hume Johnson says the final rallies are less about wooing undecided and more about firing up the faithful.

“Rallies primarily serve to mobilise and galvanise a party’s base of core supporters,” said Johnson, an associate professor at Roger Williams University in Rhode Island in the United States.

For her, rallies, like the ones scheduled for Sam Sharpe Square and Spanish Town, generate enthusiasm and motivate supporters who are already likely to vote for the respective parties.

“They do not sway the undecided, but election turnout is crucial, and rallies can actually boost the chances of supporters turning out to the polls on election day,” Johnson argued.

Turnout has been a sore point for Jamaican politics. From 53.17 per cent in 2011, it dipped to 48.37 per cent in 2016 and then plunged to a record low of just 37.85 per cent in 2020. However, recent signals suggest a rebound. The latest RJRGLEANER-commissioned poll, conducted by the Don Anderson-led Market Research Services Limited, found that 55.5 per cent of Jamaicans say they plan to vote on September 3.

The voters’ list now stands at 2,077,799, an increase of more than 164,000 compared to 2020.

Johnson posited that the parties will spare no expense to pull off these spectacles.

“While rallies can be costly to organise, they are often viewed as an essential element of the final marketing and communication push in an election campaign, and the excitement and buzz they generate is often seen by the political parties as highly beneficial,” she said.

However, time is limited. Under the Representation of the People Act, no campaigning is allowed within 24 hours of an election.

Political commentator Lloyd B. Smith argues that these mass rallies represent one final push by both parties to energise the base and to win voters who may be on the fence.

“Both parties would want to pull out the bigger crowd because the bigger the crowd a message is sent that, ‘Hey, we are strong and ready’,” said Smith, who contested elections for both the JLP and the PNP.

“In essence, it’s more about optics than anything else. Of course, the underbelly of all of this is that you will have persons at the rally who are undecided, and even though they may be in the green or orange shirt, it doesn’t necessarily mean that on election day you have their vote, because the reality is many persons are sometimes cajoled to go to these rallies or persuaded by money or food, drinks, etc., and it comes like a party – a joyride – so those have to be factored in,” he said.

According to Smith, both political parties have long recognised that massive rallies do not guarantee victory.

“The crowd alone cannot determine who wins, but it’s a good bolster, it’s a psychological bolster.”

Still, Smith warned that the energy of these events can also be dangerous if speakers lose focus.

“There is a perverse side to all of this. There is a saying that loose lips sink ships. So at this penultimate stage, going into the election, any gaffe or statement or pronouncement made on stage could have a negative effect,” he said.

“Speakers have to be careful to stay on message and don’t go off into certain areas, including expletives or anything else that could damage their party’s chances,” he said.

General secretary of the PNP, Dr Dayton Campbell, is fully aware that massive crowds alone do not secure victory.

“We know that crowds don’t win elections,” he said.

“It takes organisation on the ground so we are putting in the work to ensure our workers are in place and trained and motivated. We have done our canvassing, we know where voters are and we have put the plans in place to get them out,” he said.

FIRED UP AND READY

Campbell insists the party is fired up and ready. Just last weekend in Mandeville, Manchester, its president, Mark Golding, pledged that if elected, the party would raise the income tax threshold from the current $1.8 million to $3.5 million. Now, with its sights set on Sam Sharpe Square, the PNP is making one final push in St James, where it lost all five seats in 2020.

The square itself is steeped in political memory. In 1980, Michael Manley famously declared, “150,000 strong can’t be wrong”, before calling an election his party went on to lose in a landslide.

Campbell brushed aside any suggestion of history haunting their choice.

“We have very strong support in that region between Westmoreland, Hanover and Trelawny and beyond, so we are not superstitious,” Campbell said.

In the 2020 general election, the PNP lost all nine seats in the three parishes, but Campbell said the breech has been repaired and the party is on the way to a resounding win.

“The mass meeting is necessary to keep the momentum going, to generate the energy and to communicate with our supporters and wider society, and that’s the purpose of it,” Campbell said.

Dr Christopher Tufton, the JLP’s campaign chairman, told The Sunday Gleaner holding the final meeting in Spanish Town holds special significance for the party.

“To close off in Spanish Town is significant from the perspective that St Catherine is a significant parish with a large number of seats,” he said.

“I think it’s the largest number of seats and, therefore, its relevance of having a final display of strength, unity, teamwork in that parish. It is where the prime minister is from. That is also significant because he is our standard-bearer and we are thankful to the parish for delivering him to us as a Labour Party and to the country,” Tufton added.

Supporters from St Catherine Central, South Central and South West – constituencies the JLP considers “supremely strong” – are expected to pour into Spanish Town. Tufton noted that the location carries extra weight for Holness.

“We have traditionally had very strong support in St Catherine, and Spanish Town in particular, and we wanted to also give them an opportunity to participate in a major event on their turf. It is also important so close to the election not to disturb too much the other parts of the country, particularly marginal seats where there needs to be focus now on organisation for the day,” he said.

Tufton insisted that the JLP, which has been in power since 2016, is heading into Sunday’s final rally high on confidence, and will continue to highlight its record.

“I think there is enough to show that in the nine years we have delivered, for the most part. We do know there is more work to be done, but we do believe that we are the superior party of the two,” he said.

The JLP plans to use the rally to highlight the depth and benefits of its manifesto and commitments, presenting them as a continuation of the Government’s ongoing work. Sunday’s event, he said, will underscore the achievements of the Government while outlining the JLP’s vision moving forward.

karen.madden@gleanerjm.com