‘Tide shift’

The bloodiest week of 2025 came just days into the new year.

Between January 4 and January 11, at least 29 people were murdered across Jamaica, a violent upsurge that reignited fears that the country was headed for another year of unrelenting bloodshed.

The killings were spread across several police divisions, leaving communities traumatised and reigniting public debate about the security forces’ ability to contain organised crime.

That week would prove pivotal as, within days, the security forces launched one of the most expansive crime suppression responses in Jamaica’s modern history.

Curfews were imposed across multiple divisions – Kingston Western, St Andrew Central, St Andrew South and St Catherine South – simultaneously.

The Corporate Area nightlife was crippled and some rural divisions like St Mary and St Ann did not escape, a move some deemed an extraordinary step that underscored the severity of the situation.

Entertainment events and social gatherings were postponed or cancelled, businesses closed early, and entire communities found themselves under lockdown as police and soldiers took over the streets.

In 2024, Jamaica averaged roughly 22 murders per week, reinforcing its standing as one of the most violent countries in the Western Hemisphere.

Many feared the early-January spike was a sign that 2025 would follow the same deadly trajectory. Instead, the violence began to subside, slowly at first, then decisively.

As the months passed, the murder curve bent sharply downwards.

By the end of the year, Jamaica recorded 673 murders, the lowest annual total in nearly three decades, representing a 41 per cent reduction year-on-year.

The figure translated to an average of about 13 murders per week and represented one of the most dramatic year-on-year reductions in homicide ever recorded locally.

For the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF), it was evidence that sustained, intelligence-driven policing, supported by the military, could disrupt even deeply entrenched criminal networks.

Declaring that the “tide has shifted”, National Security Minister Dr Horace Chang, during the opening of the Sectoral Debate in Parliament in April 2025, reeled off a raft of achievements in the fight against crime and violence, arguing that the country was beginning to see the results of the Government’s policies and investments in national security.

By the start of the second quarter, Chang said Jamaica was on a sustainable path of crime reduction, having recorded 187 murders in the first quarter of 2025, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2024.

Chang, also deputy prime minister, added that shootings, rapes, robberies, and break-ins have also declined for six straight quarters, starting from the third quarter of 2023.

From January 1 to April 27, there were 227 murders – 132 fewer than the same period in 2024 – representing a 37 per cent reduction.

The decline in homicides was mirrored across other categories of violent crime.

Police data showed notable reductions in shootings, incidents involving injured persons, and several serious offences typically linked to gang activity.

Senior officers repeatedly credited targeted operations, enhanced surveillance, gun seizures and the dismantling of organised criminal networks for the improved numbers.

In divisions long associated with high murder rates, year-end tallies fell sharply, offering law-abiding citizens a rare sense of reprieve.

Seventeen of the 19 police divisions had shown a reduction in murders, with St Ann showing an increase and St Thomas holding firm.

But while Jamaicans were far less likely to be murdered in 2025, the year exposed a more complicated crime reality beneath the surface.

SURGE SEEN ELSEWHERE

Even as violent crime fell, some other offences surged, reshaping how insecurity was experienced across the country.

One of the most alarming trends emerged early in the year, a sharp spike in motor vehicle theft.

In the first three months of 2025 alone, reported car thefts surged by nearly 90 per cent, according to police data, triggering public concern and industry alarm.

The thefts cut across socio-economic lines, affecting private motorists, car rental operators and commercial fleets.

In some cases, vehicles were stolen from residential driveways in the early hours of the morning; in others, drivers were intercepted and robbed of their cars at gunpoint.

Law-enforcement officials later acknowledged that organised criminal networks were exploiting gaps in vehicle tracking and border controls, with stolen vehicles often dismantled for parts or smuggled out of the country.

The surge prompted renewed calls for legislative reform, stronger vehicle-tracking requirements, and greater collaboration between police, insurers and port authorities.

Robberies also trended upwards by eight per cent during the year and break-ins by 17 per cent.

Also troubling was the parallel rise in banking-related and financial crimes.

Scams involving fraudulent wire transfers, ATM skimming, identity theft and social-engineering schemes proliferated, costing individuals and institutions millions of dollars.

Several arrests and probes were made in this regard as banks and financial institutions tightened security protocols, while police cybercrime units toiled to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated offenders.

Investigators noted that many of these crimes were transnational in nature, with links to overseas networks exploiting digital vulnerabilities and weak cross-border enforcement mechanisms.

Geographically, the crime picture remained uneven.

While most police divisions recorded fewer murders than in 2024, a small number continued to contribute disproportionately to the national total.

Rural communities faced different challenges, including praedial larceny and vehicle theft, while tourist-dependent areas remained sensitive to robberies that threatened Jamaica’s international image.

CREDIBLE PROGRESS

Following a visit in March 2025 by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which focused on strengthening bilateral relations and addressing regional security, he promised to review the travel advisory for Jamaica, while lauding local authorities for making “impressive” strides in its crime-reduction efforts.

Still, the scale of the homicide reduction reshaped national discourse.

For the first time in years, policymakers could credibly speak of progress.

The question shifted from whether violence could be reduced to whether the gains could be sustained and broadened to include everyday crimes that continued to erode public confidence.

Well before the last quarter of 2025, a period historically marked by widespread killing and violent crime in Jamaica, a change was imminent, as the country had stepped back from the brink of mass violence.

Analysts, however, have warned that without parallel investment in social intervention, economic opportunity and justice reform, the crime landscape could simply transform again.

History, however, will likely remember 2025 as a year of profound contrast, one that began with bloodshed and fear, and ended with homicide figures not seen since the mid-1990s.

It was a year that proved progress was possible, even against formidable odds, while reminding Jamaicans that true public safety is measured not only by how few are killed, but by how securely people live.

andre.williams@gleanerjm.com

What they said on crime in Jamaica in 2025

“Jamaica could see fewer than 800 murders this year, not just a historic low, but a major victory for every law-abiding Jamaican”.

- Dr Horace Chang, Minister of National Security, on falling homicide figures

APRIL 29, 2025

“I am not a supporter of mandatory sentencing because circumstances alter cases.”

-Senator Lambert Brown, during Senate debate on mandatory minimum penalties

JUNE 20, 2025

“I’m happy to say that from 2017 to 2018 until now, the level of reduction in murders, it didn’t just start [overnight], it was a major investment made with all the scepticism that existed and myself, as president of the PSOJ, had to jump behind it because I saw continuity in policy.”

-Senator Keith Duncan on supporting the government’s crime strategy

DECEMBER 19, 2025

“Strategy without support is theory. What we have demonstrated this year is what becomes possible when vision is matched by investment. I must also recognise our many stakeholders who have stood firmly with the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) throughout this period of transformation.”

-Commissioner of Police Dr Kevin Blake on hundreds of lives saved in 2025

DECEMBER 25, 2025

“Had the Government maintained and strengthened the PNP’s pre-2016 strategies it inherited, fewer people would have been murdered.”

-Opposition lawmaker Fitz Jackson, on past strategies vs current policy

APRIL 29, 2025

“Criminals must know that not only will they be caught but the consequences will be sure and far-reaching.”

-Government Senator Abka Fitz-Henley, on sending a strong and emphatic message to murderers and criminals.

JUNE 20, 2025

Historic crime and security achievements in 2025

• Lowest monthly murder count in 25 years – 48 murders in February 2025.

• Lowest quarterly murder total in 25 years – 187 murders in Q1 of 2025.

• Most consecutive weeks with murders below 15, in 25 years – A run of 7 weeks since March 2025.

• Most weeks in a quarter with murders below 20, in 25 years – 11 weeks in Q1 of 2025.

• Lowest quarterly major crimes in 25 years – 898 cases in Q1 of 2025.

• Most firearms recovered in a single quarter – 276 firearms in Q1 of 2025.

TOP 15 CRIME INCIDENTS FOR 2025

1. Two policeman murdered off Waltham Park Road in St Andrew (November 13, 2025)

2. Woman chopped to death, daughter injured in Rose Hill, St Andrew (October 21, 2025)

3. UWI student found dead in dorm room (October 16, 2025)

4. Murder of veteran Jockey Oneil Mullings (October 21, 2025)

5. Double killing jolts rural St Andrew community (August 24, 2025)

6. 8 on the run, 1 held after jail break (August 19, 2025)

7. St Mary woman killed by lover cop (June 26, 2025)

8. Body of Clarendon woman found in septic tank (June 1, 2025)

9. Missing 8-yr-old boy found dead in car (May 27, 2025)

10. Near $1B in motor vehicle theft in first quarter (April 4, 2025)

11. Landlord body found in house during yard sale (January 15)

12. Gangbangers crash and die after Molynes Road murder (January 27, 2025)

13. Deportee on child murder wrap handed over to police (February 5, 2025)

14. Car thefts rev up by staggering 92% (February 13, 2025)

15. Increased seizures of illegal gun and ammo shipments (2025)