Caribbean tourism shows resilience amid mixed markets
Published:Thursday | October 2, 2025 | 12:13 AMJanet Silvera/Gleaner Writer
Bridgetown, Barbados:
Caribbean tourism recorded 18.5 million arrivals in the first half of 2025, up nearly two per cent on last year and six per cent above pre-pandemic levels, according to new data presented at the CTO’s State of the Tourism Industry Conference (SOTIC) in Barbados yesterday.
Presenting the mid-year figures at the Hilton Barbados, CTO database administrator Paul Garnes told delegates the results “show strong resilience” despite softening demand from North America and wider geopolitical uncertainty.
“Despite shocks to the system, if we make data-driven decisions, we are well on our way,” he said, likening the industry’s trajectory to recovering from an injury during a 5K run, painful but still moving forward.
The numbers reveal a region that is holding steady even as global conditions remain unpredictable. International tourist arrivals worldwide reached about 690 million between January and June, a 5.1 per cent increase year-on-year and four per cent above 2019, according to UN Tourism. Africa led the growth at 12.4 per cent, while Asia-Pacific posted double-digit gains but remains shy of full recovery. Europe and the Americas grew moderately, while the Middle East declined 4.2 per cent due to conflict.
For the Caribbean, the story was one of modest but positive gains. First-quarter arrivals dipped 0.6 per cent, compared to 2024, with softer demand in February and March offsetting a strong January. But the second quarter rebounded 4.8 per cent, delivering 8.9 million visitors. April was particularly strong, up 8.4 per cent year-on-year, aided by Easter celebrations, an international cricket series with Ireland and England, and delayed Liberation Day events. May rose 2.2 per cent and June 3.7 per cent, together pushing arrivals nearly nine per cent above 2019.
“Quarter two was particularly strong, a clear sign that the region is on a growth trajectory,” Garnes said.
By source market, the United States remained the Caribbean’s anchor, providing just over nine million visitors in the first half of 2025. The volume was steady but essentially flat, compared to 2024. The Dominican Republic, Jamaica, The Bahamas and Aruba remained the top destinations for US travellers.
Canada, however, slumped. Arrivals fell to 1.7 million between January and June, a nine per cent decline year-on-year and well below pre-pandemic levels. The pullback reflected weaker consumer confidence, higher travel costs, and airline capacity cuts. By midyear, Canada’s recovery rate had slipped back to 78 per cent of 2019 volumes, compared to 86 per cent the year before.
Europe also softened. Just 2.5 million Europeans travelled to the Caribbean, a five per cent decline from 2024 and 17 per cent short of 2019. Performance varied widely: Guyana, Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda posted double-digit gains, but most destinations saw declines.
BRIGHT SPOT
The bright spot was South America, where arrivals surged more than 25 per cent, jumping from 790,000 to nearly one million. Growth was strongest from Brazil and Colombia, reflecting improved air connectivity and targeted marketing. Other long-haul markets, including Asia and Africa, also registered double-digit increases, collectively sending almost 3.8 million visitors, proof, Garnes said, that “the region is diversifying beyond its traditional markets”.
Fifteen of 24 reporting destinations recorded higher arrivals in the first half of 2025. Guyana, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Curaçao, Trinidad and Tobago, and Dominica stood out, with increases ranging from modest gains to more than 60 per cent above 2019 benchmarks.
Others, however, faced setbacks. A smaller group of destinations saw declines between 0.1 per cent and 10.7 per cent, reflecting environmental events, natural capacity limits, or softer demand from key markets.
Cruise tourism continued to shine. By June, the region had welcomed 20 million cruise visits, six per cent more than 2024 and almost 20 per cent higher than 2019. It marked the highest midyear volume on record.
The Bahamas dominated, drawing more than five million passengers, nearly one in four cruise visits to the Caribbean. Combined, Cozumel, the Dominican Republic, the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico accounted for another quarter of arrivals. Double-digit growth was reported in Barbados, the Turks and Caicos, Grenada, Martinique, and the Dominican Republic.
Compared to 2019, the picture was even brighter: 14 destinations have now surpassed their pre-pandemic cruise volumes, with The Bahamas and Dominican Republic recording multiples of their earlier figures.
Hotel performance was mixed. According to STR Global, average daily rates rose just over three per cent to US$424, pushing revenues up nearly two per cent. Occupancy, however, dipped slightly to 73 per cent. Construction remains active: 19 properties are in various stages of completion across the region, including new Unico and Dreams resorts in Jamaica, a Planet Hollywood in Barbados, and Sandals and Beaches expansions in St Lucia and Antigua.
SHORT-TERM RENTALS CLIMB
Short-term rentals continued their climb. The CTO tracked 78,000 active listings in early 2025 across 24 destinations, down marginally from late 2024 but still up five per cent year-on-year. Check-ins rose seven per cent and room nights 12 per cent, totalling one million check-ins and five million room nights in the first quarter alone.
CTO Director of Research Aliyah Shakir reminded delegates that 2024 had already been a record year, with 34 million visitors, six per cent higher than 2023 and seven per cent above 2019.
“The tourism economic impact really remains enormous,” she said, noting that the sector contributes roughly US$85 billion to regional GDP and supports nearly three million jobs.
She added that the Caribbean now attracts 43 per cent of global cruise passengers, generating US$3.5 billion in visitor spending and more than 78,000 jobs in the 2023-2024 season.
“Compared to 2019, cruise arrivals were up 11 per cent, confirming that the sector not only recovered, but is expanding beyond its previous peak,” Shakir said.
Looking ahead, Garnes cautioned that high transport and accommodation costs remain among the biggest risks facing international travel. IMF forecasts global GDP growth of three per cent in 2025, while UN Tourism projects worldwide arrivals will rise three to five per cent. IATA expects global passenger traffic to grow 5.8 per cent, slower than 2024 but still healthy.
“The challenge for the Caribbean will be sustaining growth amid softer demand from North America, while leveraging bright spots in South America and new source markets,” Garnes said. “Despite shocks to the system, we are well on our way.”