Editorial | Nothing settled in Venezuela

Nothing, fundamentally, has been settled in Venezuela despite America’s military assault on the country and the capture and rendition to the United States of the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro. He is being put on trial for drug charges.

With Delcy Rodriguez, Mr Maduro’s deputy, now the interim president, the Chavistas remain in charge notwithstanding President Donald Trump’s declaration that America will run Venezuela.

Notably, too, Mr Trump ruled out early elections and effectively sidelined Venezuela’s political opposition. Ms Rodriguez, he said, would remain in power so long as “she does what we want”.

The current situation can hardly be satisfactory for anyone: not Chavistas, the leftist political movement that has governed Venezuela for over two decades and now has the threat of further US military action hanging over its head; not the Opposition, headed by Corina Machado, who had hoped that Mr Maduro’s removal would open the door to power; and neither is it likely to have been Mr Trump’s expected, or preferred, outcome when in September, he sent an armada to the southern Caribbean Sea for a drumbeat of threats against the Maduro government. Full regime change was widely expected.

What has transpired in Venezuela, at least for now, is a political stalemate.

For Venezuela’s neighbours, including the members of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), the situation, especially when coupled with Mr Trump’s threats against Cuba and Colombia, represents uncertainty and a potential for instability.

Against that backdrop, CARICOM’s greater value is in its conglomeration rather than the community’s 15 members of small island and developing states attempting, individually, to either defy the United States or cut deals with the superpower.

Even together, CARICOM has little strength, but collectively, their voice is more likely to be heard above the din and better positioned to influence events.

CARICOM VULNERABLE

There are several reasons why this matters to CARICOM and why they should pay close attention to events in Venezuela and coordinate their responses thereto. Not least is the fact that while more than 2,000 miles of sea are between the farthest reaches of CARICOM, most of the community’s members are clustered not far from Venezuela. They are, therefore, vulnerable to heightened instability in their neighbourhood.

Moreover, contagion will almost certainly spread across the region. That would negatively impact regional economies if it causes existing partners to lose interest in the Caribbean and if new investors are slow, or disinclined, to risk their capital in the region. Which amplifies the dangers of the Venezuelan context to CARICOM.

For over two decades, since the time of Hugo Chávez, the United States has been at odds with Venezuela, first over Mr Chávez’s leftist lean. Indeed, George Bush’s administration supported a 2002 coup against Mr Chávez that briefly removed the former army captain from power.

After Mr Chávez’s death in 2013, the Americans, and Western allies, accused Mr Maduro of stealing elections as well as running a narco-regime.

It is in that context that Mr Trump, having failed during his first presidency to oust Mr Maduro, months ago, on his return to office, sent the American Navy, backed by war planes and thousands of soldiers, to the southern Caribbean Sea, initially on the pretext of confronting drug traffickers. The underlying project, however, played out last weekend but without a full-fledged regime change that was expected. Possibly, the Americans didn’t, at this time, have the appetite for the large land-based military operation that would be required to pacify Venezuela and manage the state bureaucracy.

However, for the US military to have pulled off an obviously complex operation without a significant, or effective, response from the Venezuelan army and with no American casualties, suggests that they breached deep into Mr Maduro’s government. So despite the apparent rallying of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, the Chavistas, behind Ms Rodriguez, there will be suspicion among the Chavista factions.

WITHDRAWAL OF SUPPORT

Mr Trump’s endorsement of Ms Rodriguez, as well as an early conciliatory statement by the interim president indicating a willingness to work with the United States “on an agenda of cooperation and shared development”, will, no doubt, have raised eyebrows notwithstanding that she framed it within a context of respect for international law.

Significantly, Ms Rodriguez soon resorted to a posture of defiance, branding Mr Maduro’s capture illegal and insisting that “there is no foreign agent governing Venezuela”. She also gave short shrift to Mr Trump’s warning that worse than happened to Mr Maduro could happen to her if she did not do Washington’s bidding, including handing over Venezuela’s oil industry to American companies.

These US actions are complicated by Washington’s withdrawal of support from the Opposition, with Mr Trump declaring that Ms Machado lacked the “respect” to govern Venezuela and taking elections off the table in the short term. That also removes a variable that might have given Chavistas global credibility and leverage.

The flip side is that the political optics of an election could be risky for Mr Trump if the Chavistas won.

In the circumstances, Venezuela remains in a state of virulent flux, with the possibility of further American military action and internal conflict that could destabilise neighbours.

CARICOM is next door. It should watch closely and plan together for all eventualities.